Will Trump Pump the Brakes on Greentech? Insights on Future Energy Policies

Geopolitics Politics World geopolitics, politics, world iNthacity Network March 9, 2025 0 Comments

When it comes to the intricate dance of U.S. energy policy, a thought-provoking question looms large: Could Donald Trump significantly impact the green transition both domestically and internationally? In a recent insightful video by Zeihan on Geopolitics, some fascinating analysis emerged, much like storm clouds gathering on the horizon. Let's explore the implications of Trump's potential influence on the green tech industry, and how it might shape the future of energy not just in the U.S., but around the globe.

Picture the world as an enormous chessboard, where the pieces are solar panels, wind turbines, coal, and natural gas plants. In the video, Peter Zeihan makes the compelling case that while Trump's impact abroad might be limited—after all, the solar panels and wind turbines are often made thousands of miles away—the U.S. is where the real game is being played. Trump sits as a key player, possibly altering the course of energy transition with a flick of the presidential pen.

The Power of the Federal Hand

Recent green technologies propositions highlight a gripping reality: they demand substantial transmission infrastructure. Imagine trying to power New York City with energy harnessed from the sunniest stretches of the Nevada desert or the windy plains of Kansas. Ironically, these sun-soaked and wind-whipped locations are often miles away from bustling urban centers. In essence, it's like wanting a drink of water from a tap miles away—only with energy, the logistics are mind-bogglingly complex. Enter the federal government, a potential hero capable of smoothing regulatory burdens and easing infrastructure crossings that span diverse jurisdictions.

However, should Trump choose to play a different tune, it could put a wrench in these plans, turning the act of connecting demand to supply into an arduous saga. America's green tech dreams could find themselves stranded like a marooned sailor on a deserted isle.

The Mighty Funding Gap

If we spiral a bit deeper into this rabbit hole, understanding traditional versus green tech infrastructure, we find a resounding truth. Conventional energy facilities, like coal or natural gas plants, dole out roughly a quarter of their expense upfront. The lion’s share goes to fuel costs over time—a bit like having a car with smaller monthly loan payments but higher fuel expenses.

In contrast, most green technologies front-load their costs to a mammoth degree, owing to the free nature of wind and solar fuel. The entire setup needs resources much akin to a vehicle that’s costly upfront but nearly free to run. With capital costs soaring post-2019—a phenomenon fueled by Baby Boomers cashing out and tucking that cash into T-bills—the financing hurdles grow taller by the day.

To put it plainly, if financing options dry up, green projects could wither away like autumn leaves. If Trump's administration cuts federal support, many economically logical, environmentally appealing projects could remain grounded, never to take flight. Trump's stance could thus deliver a decisive blow to these projects, sending ripple effects through the energy markets.

Busting the Myths: Levelized Cost of Power

In the video, Peter Zeihan also brings up an interesting point about the green community's reliance on "levelized cost of power" to cheerlead the decline of solar and wind costs. However, this often romanticized metric conveniently overlooks the hiccups caused by intermittency. When the sun takes its evening bow, the green dream often finds itself in the dark. Pair this with the financing burden and the federal presence becomes crucial for these green projects to follow through.

Private industry may don the superhero cape, attempting to swoop in and save the day, but raising capital for long-term payouts is akin to persuading a cat to take a bath—necessary but usually unwelcome. Even with local and state governments throwing their hats into the ring, their resources can't match the federal floodgates. If these resources shrink, expect the pace of construction for new green technology projects to slow, impacting not just domestic, but even international initiatives.

If you’re wondering where this leaves us, the future of green technology could hinge precariously on a delicate balance, springing between administrative priorities and environmental necessities.

Conclusion

As we ponder the weight of Trump’s hand on the wheel of green tech, we're left with pressing questions. Could a pivot in policy drive change to a halt, leaving progress locked in a standstill? Will private enterprises rise to the challenge, filling the void left by federal inaction? Or could innovation force open the rusty gates of tradition, ushering in an era where green tech stands proudly on its own?

Engage with us in the comments; share your thoughts. Are we at a pivotal point in energy history, and will the actions (or inactions) of one administration define the trajectory of renewable energy for years to come? This is more than just a political chess match; it’s a revolutionary moment that beckons every mind and heart to envision a future marked with hope and responsibility.

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Wait! There's more...check out our fascinating short story that continues the journey: A Generational War

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