The Syrian Consequence: Israel’s Strategic Opportunity

Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Egmont National Park. That's Mount Taranaki in the background, and I'm walking through the Auk Kawakawa swamp, which is non-standard anyway. We're going to continue talking about the consequences of the fall of the Syrian government, and today we're going to cover Israel.

Zeihan delivers a gripping opening act that sets the stage for a geopolitical thriller filled with negotiation, sentimentality, and, of course, the existentialism that only the intricate dynamics of Middle East politics can brew. Today, we're diving into the consequences, the transitions, and the future possibilities emerging from the fire and ash of the Syrian civil strife, looking specifically at what it means for Israel. This kaleidoscope of intrigue is laid out in Zeihan’s YouTube channel, Zeihan on Geopolitics.

No War Without Egypt...And No Peace Without Syria?

The Middle East has, for decades, operated under that unsettling proverb: "There's no war without Egypt and no peace without Syria." This phrase hails from the tumultuous years following the Yom Kippur War of 1973, a startling clash that ended with Israel's decisive victory—a segue to dialogue that led to the historic Camp David Accords of 1979 under President Jimmy Carter. Despite peace with Egypt, the atonal symphony between Israel and Syria lingered on the horizon, consistently threatening regional stability.

Fast-forward to today: Syria is fractured, its government teetering on the brink of collapse. What we once saw as a danger zone has, ironically, created new opportunities for Israel—a nation historically locked in a constant battle for its sovereignty. With the crumpling of Syria, Israel finds itself in a transformed strategic landscape.

The Golan Heights: Fertile Yet Contentious Land

The Golan Heights, that controversial patch of land Israel snatched from Syria over decades of conflict, finds itself in the spotlight yet again. The situation in Syria has made expectations of a "land for peace" deal increasingly obsolete, opening the door for Israel to maximize the region’s fertile potential. In a country heavily reliant on imports for over half of its food, this shift could be agriculturally momentous.

The Shia Crescent: A Shattered Illusion

Enter the surreal spectacle of the Shia Crescent, a geopolitical construct stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon. Its ambition? A corridor for Iranian influence. But with Syria’s dissolution, this dream seems splintered. Iran's pathways for direct support of its ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon face unprecedented disruption. With supply lines severed, Hezbollah finds itself limping—a shadow of its former menace.

Israel’s recent actions have eviscerated much of Hezbollah's leadership. Stripped of mentorship and machinery from Syria or Iran, Hezbollah now dallies at the edge of impotence. This shift transforms Israel from a region on the defensive into a player eyeing new horizons of stability.

And Then There’s Hamas

Let's not sideline Hamas in Gaza, though. While the landscape around Israel morphs, the thorny issue of Gaza remains relentless. Recent offensives underscored Hamas' volatility. Current Israeli military strategies aim to diffuse Gaza into manageable territories, ensuring that Gaza’s perpetual agitation remains a simmer rather than a boil. Harsh? Yes, but perhaps a lesser evil in this age-old dance of power.

The Second Civil War: Syria's New Phase

As the Syrian saga twists towards a post-Assad future, a new chapter unfolds: the potential of Israeli involvement. Is intervention on the cards? As heretofore sidelined Sunni Arabs rally for power, Israel may look on warily, gauging threats and calibrating responses. Never has the term "watch and wait" felt so pressing or predictive.

The Unanswered Question: Turkey's Role

For Israel, Syria's degradation portends new kinships—and enmities. As they embark on this uncharted journey, one specter looms large: Turkey. Once a comfortable companion, modern Turkey is redefining itself, and the Israeli-Turkish axis hangs in delicate balance.

Do we see a united front in regional geopolitics? Picture it: Israel, Turkey, and Egypt forging an Eastern Mediterranean colossus. If the winds shift in the opposite direction, we barrel towards a stark division, with Europe squarely situated in one corner. Thus, whatever shape Turkey chooses to contort into, it defines more than just its nation—it shapes the very fabric of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

As the landscape of power flexes and reforms, Israel’s path is one bathed in complexity. It’s a dance on eggshells, a play of patience and subtlety that will occupy thinkers for decades to come, deciding not only Israel’s immediate horizon but long-lasting international alliances.

Now, dear reader, which winds will prevail? How do you envision the Middle East's trajectory as every player maneuvers in this ever-shifting chessboard? Share your thoughts in the comments below and become part of the iNthacity community for more electrifying debates. Apply to become a permanent resident, then a citizen of the "Shining City on the Web".