{"id":15234867,"date":"2026-07-30T22:03:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T02:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.inthacity.com\/news\/climate-change-made-spain-wildfires-at-least-20-times-more-likely\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T23:34:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T03:34:55","slug":"climate-change-made-spain-wildfires-at-least-20-times-more-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.inthacity.com\/news\/climate-change-made-spain-wildfires-at-least-20-times-more-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Made Spain Wildfires At Least 20 Times More Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Research & Developments<\/span><\/strong><\/a> is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news that impacts science and scientists today.<\/em><\/em><\/h4>\n

Over the past 2 weeks, large wildfires in southwestern France and central Spain have burned 255,000 hectares, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and created extremely poor air quality even hundreds of kilometers away. Though firefighters have now contained the major fires, a forecasted heat wave and windy weather threaten to worsen<\/a> the situation. <\/p>\n

Climate change played a role in creating the conditions for these fires to burn and spread, a new analysis<\/a> has found.<\/p>\n

The analysis, from World Weather Attribution, indicates that climate change made France and Spain\u2019s fire-prone conditions much more likely: at least twice as likely in southwestern France and at least 20 times as likely in central Spain. Extreme heat and a widespread drought in Western Europe, both linked to climate change, created \u201ctinderbox conditions,\u201d the authors write.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing in France and Spain isn\u2019t just bad luck, it is a clear sign of the escalating impacts of anthropogenic warming,\u201d said Clair Barnes<\/a>, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and one of the authors of the analysis, in a press release.  <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires. What\u2019s unique about this case is that it\u2019s still early in the season \u2013 and with another heatwave looming, these findings are extremely scary,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

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July wildfires have burned over a quarter of a million hectares (shaded in red) in Spain and France, as shown by European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) data. Climate change made these fires more likely. Credit: World Weather Attribution<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Attribution studies<\/a> typically compare weather and climate observations from the real world with a simulated, theoretical world in which the climate has not warmed. Through this method, scientists can get an idea of how likely a certain event would have been without climate change. <\/p>\n

World Weather Attribution, an international climate science partnership, said the researchers\u2019 analysis used a \u201csuper-rapid\u201d protocol that analyzed historical weather observations. Researchers compared this year\u2019s fire weather conditions to the maximum fire weather conditions recorded in previous summers and simulations of conditions in a pre-industrial climate (a world without substantial anthropogenic climate change). <\/p>\n

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Surface soil moisture anomalies relative to the 1991-2020 baseline in Spain and southeastern France show “weather whiplash”\u2014a wet December, January, and February followed by a dry June and July. Credit: World Weather Attribution<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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A historic heat wave in June put much of France under temperatures far above those of a 1991-2020 baseline. Credit: World Weather Attribution<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Researchers determined that in France, drought-affected man-made pine woodlands created particularly suitable fuel for wildfires to spread rapidly. In Spain, a wet winter caused a spike in plant growth. When severe drought and high temperatures followed in spring and summer, a large volume of biomass became highly flammable fuel. This so-called \u201cweather whiplash\u201d is becoming \u201can increasingly important driver of wildfire risk in western Europe,\u201d the authors write. <\/p>\n

Two previous attribution analyses by World Weather Attribution this summer found that Europe\u2019s June heatwave<\/a> and summer drought<\/a> were both made more likely by climate change. A similar June heatwave would have been about 3.5\u00b0C (6.3\u00b0F) degrees cooler in 1976, for example, according to their analysis. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhile this observation-based attribution study is well-designed and relies on established scientific literature,\u201d the \u201csuper-rapid\u201d protocol is limited in two ways, wrote Danielle Touma<\/a>, a climate scientist at the University of Texas at Austin who was not involved in the study, in an email. <\/p>\n

First, it\u2019s difficult to assess the role of internal climate variability (natural fluctuations in the climate unrelated to climate change) without climate modeling, and second, it\u2019s hard to assess the impact of increased carbon dioxide emissions on plant growth that could fuel fires. Still, \u201cthe methods that they use are well established for climate change-induced increases to temperatures and evaporative demand, which can lead to droughts,\u201d she wrote.<\/p>\n

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Related<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2022\u00a0\u00a0Read the Analysis: \u201cClimate Change Increases Likelihood of Compounding Drivers of Severe Wildfire Conditions in France and Spain\u201d<\/a>
\u2022\u00a0\u00a0We\u2019re Getting Better at Knowing When Climate Change Is to Blame, National Academies Report Says<\/a>
\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Confidence in attributing events to climate change is highest for extreme temperature events, followed by precipitation events and drought. Scientists have relatively lower confidence in attributing wildfires to climate change due to the many drivers of fires. However, the science surrounding attribution studies has greatly improved over the past decade, according to a recent report<\/a> from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. <\/p>\n

\u201cThese mega-fires show how fast climate-driven extreme heat and dry landscapes can turn wildfires into devastating national disasters,\u201d said Simon Stiell<\/a>, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change<\/a>, in a press release. <\/p>\n

\u201cHumanity continuing to burn colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas is baking our planet, making these conditions more dangerous, and these megafires more deadly and destructive. But the solutions are equally clear: All countries must move faster from fossil fuels to renewables and protect people from worsening climate impacts, from wildfires, to megastorms and floods, to droughts hitting food production,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

\u2014Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social<\/a>), Staff Writer<\/p>\n

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about science or scientists? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Text \u00a9 2026. AGU.\u00a0CC BY-NC-ND 3.0<\/a>
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.<\/h6>\n

Source: Science \u2013 eos<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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